Meaningful uncertainty quantification in computer vision requires reasoning about semantic information---say, the hair color of the person in a photo or the location of a car on the street. To this end, recent breakthroughs in generative modeling allow us to represent semantic information in disentangled latent spaces, but providing uncertainties on the semantic latent variables has remained challenging. In this work, we provide principled uncertainty intervals that are guaranteed to contain the true semantic factors for any underlying generative model. The method does the following: (1) it uses quantile regression to output a heuristic uncertainty interval for each element in the latent space (2) calibrates these uncertainties such that they contain the true value of the latent for a new, unseen input. The endpoints of these calibrated intervals can then be propagated through the generator to produce interpretable uncertainty visualizations for each semantic factor.

Code and demos can be found on our project page.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) offers unparalleled soft-tissue contrast but is fundamentally limited by long acquisition times. While deep learning-based accelerated MRI can dramatically shorten scan times, the reconstruction from undersampled data introduces ambiguity resulting from an ill-posed problem with infinitely many possible solutions that propagates to downstream clinical tasks. This uncertainty is usually ignored during the acquisition process as acceleration factors are often fixed a priori, resulting in scans that are either unnecessarily long or of insufficient quality for a given clinical endpoint. This work introduces a dynamic, uncertainty-aware acquisition framework that adjusts scan time on a per-subject basis. Our method leverages a probabilistic reconstruction model to estimate image uncertainty, which is then propagated through a full analysis pipeline to a quantitative metric of interest (e.g., patellar cartilage volume or cardiac ejection fraction). We use conformal prediction to transform this uncertainty into a rigorous, calibrated confidence interval for the metric. During acquisition, the system iteratively samples k-space, updates the reconstruction, and evaluates the confidence interval. The scan terminates automatically once the uncertainty meets a user-predefined precision target. We validate our framework on both knee and cardiac MRI datasets. Our results demonstrate that this adaptive approach reduces scan times compared to fixed protocols while providing formal statistical guarantees on the precision of the final image. This framework moves beyond fixed acceleration factors, enabling patient-specific acquisitions that balance scan efficiency with diagnostic confidence, a critical step towards personalized and resource-efficient MRI.

Deep learning models often hallucinate, producing realistic artifacts that are not truly present in the sample. This can have dire consequences for scientific and medical inverse problems, such as MRI and microscopy denoising, where accuracy is more important than perceptual quality. Uncertainty quantification techniques, such as conformal prediction, can pinpoint outliers and provide guarantees for image regression tasks, improving reliability. However, existing methods utilize a linear constant scaling factor to calibrate uncertainty bounds, resulting in larger, less informative bounds. We propose QUTCC, a quantile uncertainty training and calibration technique that enables nonlinear, non-uniform scaling of quantile predictions to enable tighter uncertainty estimates. Using a U-Net architecture with a quantile embedding, QUTCC enables the prediction of the full conditional distribution of quantiles for the imaging task. During calibration, QUTCC generates uncertainty bounds by iteratively querying the network for upper and lower quantiles, progressively refining the bounds to obtain a tighter interval that captures the desired coverage. We evaluate our method on several denoising tasks as well as compressive MRI reconstruction. Our method successfully pinpoints hallucinations in image estimates and consistently achieves tighter uncertainty intervals than prior methods while maintaining the same statistical coverage.

Likelihood-free approaches are appealing for performing inference on complex dependence models, either because it is not possible to formulate a likelihood function, or its evaluation is very computationally costly. This is the case for several models available in the multivariate extremes literature, particularly for the most flexible tail models, including those that interpolate between the two key dependence classes of `asymptotic dependence' and `asymptotic independence'. We focus on approaches that leverage neural networks to approximate Bayes estimators. In particular, we explore the properties of neural Bayes estimators for parameter inference for several flexible but computationally expensive models to fit, with a view to aiding their routine implementation. Owing to the absence of likelihood evaluation in the inference procedure, classical information criteria such as the Bayesian information criterion cannot be used to select the most appropriate model. Instead, we propose using neural networks as neural Bayes classifiers for model selection. Our goal is to provide a toolbox for simple, fast fitting and comparison of complex extreme-value dependence models, where the best model is selected for a given data set and its parameters subsequently estimated using neural Bayes estimation. We apply our classifiers and estimators to analyse the pairwise extremal behaviour of changes in horizontal geomagnetic field fluctuations at three different locations.

Uncertainty quantification is necessary for developers, physicians, and regulatory agencies to build trust in machine learning predictors and improve patient care. Beyond measuring uncertainty, it is crucial to express it in clinically meaningful terms that provide actionable insights. This work introduces a conformal risk control (CRC) procedure for organ-dependent uncertainty estimation, ensuring high-probability coverage of the ground-truth image. We first present a high-dimensional CRC procedure that leverages recent ideas of length minimization. We make this procedure semantically adaptive to each patient's anatomy and positioning of organs. Our method, sem-CRC, provides tighter uncertainty intervals with valid coverage on real-world computed tomography (CT) data while communicating uncertainty with clinically relevant features.

We study the analysis of all the movements of the population on the basis of their mobility from one node to another, to observe, measure, and predict the impact of traffic according to this mobility. The frequency of congestion on roads directly or indirectly impacts our economic or social welfare. Our work focuses on exploring some machine learning methods to predict (with a certain probability) traffic in a multimodal transportation network from population mobility data. We analyze the observation of the influence of people's movements on the transportation network and make a likely prediction of congestion on the network based on this observation (historical basis).